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A year after the attacks of September 11th, what does al-Qaeda itself think it has achieved in its war with America? What will it do next?
An amazingly full picture of al-Qaeda's thinking and plans emerges from the hundreds of pages of statements and articles in Arabic on its main website, the 'Centre for Islamic Studies and Research'. This material is what al-Qaeda wants to tell the world and may not be exactly what it thinks in private. But we probably know as much about Osama Bin Laden's view of this war as we do about George W. Bush's.
The website shows that al-Qaeda believes that September 11th and the US response taught Muslims two vital lessons: that the West is waging a Crusader war against the whole of Islam, not just fighting al-Qaeda; and that a small group of Muslims can take on the world's superpower and win.
Al-Qaeda hoped that these lessons would ignite an all-out war between Islam and the West, a violent "clash of civilisations" on the scale predicted by the American academic Samuel Huntington 10 years ago. Videos released by al-Qaeda in October and November last year were full of emotional appeals to Muslims to rise up against their rulers, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
One of the earliest statements on the Qaeda website, published in December, said: "This is an opportunity for oppressed peoples and nations to rise up against the oppressor and break the thorn planted in the heart of wretched humanity, for nations have discovered that this power (America) and its children are insignificant. They have been believed to be bigger than they really are."
But almost nothing has happened, despite deep Muslim anger at civilian casualties from US bombing of Afghanistan. There have been demonstrations in countries such as Egypt, Pakistan and even Saudi Arabia but no serious uprisings and only isolated violence.
The website reveals al-Qaeda's frustration. In June, the spokesman of al-Qaeda, Sulaiman Bu Ghaith, celebrated the Qaeda member who carried out a suicide bombing at a synagogue on Djerba island in Tunisia as a symbol of the sort of action Muslims everywhere should carry out. But, nine months after September 11th, he had only that one example to quote.
Worse than that for al-Qaeda, some Muslim radicals have criticised it for killing civilians in the World Trade Center, bringing suffering on Muslims and distracting attention from the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Al-Qaeda's annoyance and concern at being challenged by other radicals has shown in a barrage of polemic on its website.
It published a long justification under Islamic law of the killing of civilians and argued that September 11th had been designed precisely to support the Palestinian cause not distract attention away from it. It has put enormous energy into attacking a leading Saudi shaykh's suggestion that Muslims should start a dialogue with the West.
One reason al-Qaeda may be finding such difficulty in fomenting a wider conflict is that many of the most important Muslim radical movements, at least in the Middle East, are at present more interested in joining mainstream politics than directly confronting America.
This is happening in Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Palestine. In Iran, reformers with a democratic mandate have, over the last decade, slowly edged forward in their power struggle with conservative clerics. In Lebanon, the radical Muslim group Hezbollah has accepted that Lebanon is a multi-faith society and has built conventional political and social welfare institutions. In Egypt, the Islamic Group is four years into a ceasefire with the government and some former members are exploring starting a legal political party. In Saudi Arabia, some of the most prominent religious leaders of the dissident movement in the 1990s have criticised al-Qaeda. Even among the Palestinians, Hamas has retained a pragmatic, ambiguous stance about a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel.
These movements remain extremely hostile to current American policies in the Middle East. But none of them is showing enthusiasm for al-Qaeda's vision of a total war.
At a tactical level, al-Qaeda has had to deal with defeat in Afghanistan. Its spokesman said in an article in June: "Muslims and non-Muslims should realise that war is a contest with victories and defeats, one day we win and another day we lose… We, by the grace of God, if we lost one round - as others believe - then we have also won victory in other rounds."
Al-Qaeda has put a brave face on defeat by emphasising that it has succeeded in keeping its leaders alive and its worldwide organisation operational. It says it has responded to the loss of its base in Afghanistan by dispersing its forces and giving its cells greater autonomy. It has repeatedly promised attacks on new targets in America.
What might those new targets be? The most important new thinking which al-Qaeda has revealed since September 11th is its perception that the economy could be America's weakest point. It has linked together the destruction of the World Trade Center, the weakening of the dollar and the plunge of stock markets and concluded that the United States can be driven to economic collapse just like the Soviet Union in the 1980s - an event which al-Qaeda and its sympathisers say was triggered by the victory of Muslim fighters over the Red Army in Afghanistan.
A series of articles on the Qaeda website in June entitled 'America nears the abyss' develops this thinking in detail, and Bin Laden focused on the US economy in his last public address to his fighters in December. Bin Laden said the September 11th attacks showed that America's economy could easily be shaken and concluded: "I say it is very important to concentrate on striking the American economy with every possible means… America is in retreat by the grace of God Almighty and economic attrition is continuing up to today. But it needs further blows. The young men need to seek out the nodes of the American economy and strike the enemy's nodes."
Two of the world's leading authorities on al-Qaeda agree that the US economy could well be its next target. Rohan Gunaratna, author of the book 'Inside al-Qaeda', says Bin Laden's emphasis indicates that his organisation has invested heavily in researching economic targets. Bruce Hoffman, Director of the Washington office of the RAND thinktank, says the loss of al-Qaeda's base in Afghanistan has probably damaged its ability to mount attacks on the scale of September 11th, but it could still hit pressure points in the US economy: "You don't need to assemble a huge 19-man team funded with 500,000 dollars to achieve pin pricks that really hurt, and that they hope cumulatively will result in the collapse of the economy."
Al-Qaeda is almost certainly putting as much imagination into planning its next attacks as Western agencies are into foiling them. But al-Qaeda's most enduring feature has been its flexibility. It may be frustrated that Muslims have not risen to join it; it may be angry at being criticised by fellow radicals, and unable to repeat an operation of the scale of September 11th. But it believes that Islamic holy warriors brought down the Soviet Union, and it may well believe it can push the United States into the same abyss.
Source:
http://www.megastories.com/attack/alqaeda/analysis020906.shtml
A year after the attacks of September 11th, what does al-Qaeda itself think it has achieved in its war with America? What will it do next?
An amazingly full picture of al-Qaeda's thinking and plans emerges from the hundreds of pages of statements and articles in Arabic on its main website, the 'Centre for Islamic Studies and Research'. This material is what al-Qaeda wants to tell the world and may not be exactly what it thinks in private. But we probably know as much about Osama Bin Laden's view of this war as we do about George W. Bush's.
The website shows that al-Qaeda believes that September 11th and the US response taught Muslims two vital lessons: that the West is waging a Crusader war against the whole of Islam, not just fighting al-Qaeda; and that a small group of Muslims can take on the world's superpower and win.
Al-Qaeda hoped that these lessons would ignite an all-out war between Islam and the West, a violent "clash of civilisations" on the scale predicted by the American academic Samuel Huntington 10 years ago. Videos released by al-Qaeda in October and November last year were full of emotional appeals to Muslims to rise up against their rulers, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
One of the earliest statements on the Qaeda website, published in December, said: "This is an opportunity for oppressed peoples and nations to rise up against the oppressor and break the thorn planted in the heart of wretched humanity, for nations have discovered that this power (America) and its children are insignificant. They have been believed to be bigger than they really are."
But almost nothing has happened, despite deep Muslim anger at civilian casualties from US bombing of Afghanistan. There have been demonstrations in countries such as Egypt, Pakistan and even Saudi Arabia but no serious uprisings and only isolated violence.
The website reveals al-Qaeda's frustration. In June, the spokesman of al-Qaeda, Sulaiman Bu Ghaith, celebrated the Qaeda member who carried out a suicide bombing at a synagogue on Djerba island in Tunisia as a symbol of the sort of action Muslims everywhere should carry out. But, nine months after September 11th, he had only that one example to quote.
Worse than that for al-Qaeda, some Muslim radicals have criticised it for killing civilians in the World Trade Center, bringing suffering on Muslims and distracting attention from the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Al-Qaeda's annoyance and concern at being challenged by other radicals has shown in a barrage of polemic on its website.
It published a long justification under Islamic law of the killing of civilians and argued that September 11th had been designed precisely to support the Palestinian cause not distract attention away from it. It has put enormous energy into attacking a leading Saudi shaykh's suggestion that Muslims should start a dialogue with the West.
One reason al-Qaeda may be finding such difficulty in fomenting a wider conflict is that many of the most important Muslim radical movements, at least in the Middle East, are at present more interested in joining mainstream politics than directly confronting America.
This is happening in Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Palestine. In Iran, reformers with a democratic mandate have, over the last decade, slowly edged forward in their power struggle with conservative clerics. In Lebanon, the radical Muslim group Hezbollah has accepted that Lebanon is a multi-faith society and has built conventional political and social welfare institutions. In Egypt, the Islamic Group is four years into a ceasefire with the government and some former members are exploring starting a legal political party. In Saudi Arabia, some of the most prominent religious leaders of the dissident movement in the 1990s have criticised al-Qaeda. Even among the Palestinians, Hamas has retained a pragmatic, ambiguous stance about a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel.
These movements remain extremely hostile to current American policies in the Middle East. But none of them is showing enthusiasm for al-Qaeda's vision of a total war.
At a tactical level, al-Qaeda has had to deal with defeat in Afghanistan. Its spokesman said in an article in June: "Muslims and non-Muslims should realise that war is a contest with victories and defeats, one day we win and another day we lose… We, by the grace of God, if we lost one round - as others believe - then we have also won victory in other rounds."
Al-Qaeda has put a brave face on defeat by emphasising that it has succeeded in keeping its leaders alive and its worldwide organisation operational. It says it has responded to the loss of its base in Afghanistan by dispersing its forces and giving its cells greater autonomy. It has repeatedly promised attacks on new targets in America.
What might those new targets be? The most important new thinking which al-Qaeda has revealed since September 11th is its perception that the economy could be America's weakest point. It has linked together the destruction of the World Trade Center, the weakening of the dollar and the plunge of stock markets and concluded that the United States can be driven to economic collapse just like the Soviet Union in the 1980s - an event which al-Qaeda and its sympathisers say was triggered by the victory of Muslim fighters over the Red Army in Afghanistan.
A series of articles on the Qaeda website in June entitled 'America nears the abyss' develops this thinking in detail, and Bin Laden focused on the US economy in his last public address to his fighters in December. Bin Laden said the September 11th attacks showed that America's economy could easily be shaken and concluded: "I say it is very important to concentrate on striking the American economy with every possible means… America is in retreat by the grace of God Almighty and economic attrition is continuing up to today. But it needs further blows. The young men need to seek out the nodes of the American economy and strike the enemy's nodes."
Two of the world's leading authorities on al-Qaeda agree that the US economy could well be its next target. Rohan Gunaratna, author of the book 'Inside al-Qaeda', says Bin Laden's emphasis indicates that his organisation has invested heavily in researching economic targets. Bruce Hoffman, Director of the Washington office of the RAND thinktank, says the loss of al-Qaeda's base in Afghanistan has probably damaged its ability to mount attacks on the scale of September 11th, but it could still hit pressure points in the US economy: "You don't need to assemble a huge 19-man team funded with 500,000 dollars to achieve pin pricks that really hurt, and that they hope cumulatively will result in the collapse of the economy."
Al-Qaeda is almost certainly putting as much imagination into planning its next attacks as Western agencies are into foiling them. But al-Qaeda's most enduring feature has been its flexibility. It may be frustrated that Muslims have not risen to join it; it may be angry at being criticised by fellow radicals, and unable to repeat an operation of the scale of September 11th. But it believes that Islamic holy warriors brought down the Soviet Union, and it may well believe it can push the United States into the same abyss.
Source:
http://www.megastories.com/attack/alqaeda/analysis020906.shtml
