Does anyone actually believe we're getting out of Iraq soon?

HeXp£Øi±

HeXp£Øi±

Well-Known Member
Shut off the news for awhile and forget about sacking Baghdad. Before we can create a government we must put down the forces that would appose it. Forget about Uprisings, Iraqis are staring at us saying "oh good Americans, but we just want food & water. Have no illusions this is going to take a hell of a lot longer then any of our military brass might suggest. Better hope the demonstrations in Syria and Egypt don't get any bigger than 350,000 or those countries are in deep shit.
 
I've always believed Bush intends to install a military governor. If we're not still there this time next year, I'll be shocked.
 
I'm still optimistic. The people (ok flavio, many of the people) want us there to help. Some opposition, not as much as anticipated (unless the "outsiders" come help)
 
I don't think that at all. I think his intentions are partially good, but i think he lacks a fundamental understanding of middle eastern peoples and therefor has a hazy idea of just how this thing is going to play out on a micro level.
 
In Syria or Lebanon or SA I'd agree Hex. Hell, maybe even in the eastern coastal countries. Iran and Iraq were once rather free. I see a yearning for that freedom. Tonight on Fox they did a story about Iraqis(/American) volunteering for some program where they go help the coalition free their Bretheren.
 
I didn't mean that I thought he had all bad intentions. In fact, I think your exactly right. He expects them to react the way he would, and there is just no way. It always amazes me when people think that their outlook is "human nature." I still think he intends to install a military governor, but I don't think it will be an American. He's slow, but not that slow.
 
If you remember correctly Gonz it wasn't just the Afghans who funded the mujahideen. It was rich Saudis and people from other countries who came to Afghanistan and "created employment opportunities" for Afghans who were unemployed and had nothing better to do with their time. Entire populations can easily be trounced upon by small agressive alien minorities just as happened in Afghanistan with the taliban. Tell me if you don't see this process already happening at a rate far quicker than happened in Afghanistan. If i saw some fervor among the Iraqis perhaps i could have some hope but i just don't as of yet see it happening on any scale that's going to make a difference. Even worse, the amount of support i'm seeing out of Cairo for the Feyadeen is distrurbing. Small extremists forces can hold up large powerful ones for extended periods of time.
 
HeXp£Øi± said:
If i saw some fervor among the Iraqis perhaps i could have some hope but i just don't as of yet see it happening
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It's there. So is the Fedayeen Saddam. They have guns in the backs of citizens. They've already killed hundreds or more, since this war began. As our strength increases so will the Iraqi resistance to the brutality of this regime. It's been 25 years of terror to get these people so sheepish. We got them riled up once & abandoned them. To the destruction of tens of thousands. Not this time. It will take time to secure their allegiance. Rumors in Baghdad are we're using a 3rd party to broker for a cease fire. Leaving saddam in charge. One hell of a PR campaign they have.

There was a story from Basrah. The people were lined up at the US aid trucks & they were yelling "hail saddam" type crapas they were accepting foods. In the distant background was a large group of men, laughing. One of the residents whispered to the camareaman/troops that they were Fedayeen & he hopes the US hurries up & arrives. They are ready to fight. They are not ready to fight overwhelming odds. especially with insufficient backup.
 
I guess i'd have to disagree with your last statement,
They are not ready to fight overwhelming odds. especially with insufficient backup.
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I think that they are, if only a minority of them but that's all it's going to take. I guess time will tell. In the meantime we head into baghdad to capture/taste the chemical weapons. This big show is going to prevent us from seeing the real forces that are mounting against us(from Syria, Egypt & Saudi Arabia) imo. It'll be a false positive. I can say though that i hope I'm wrong.
I just tend not to believe a lot of what i see on tv.
 
I think we're agreeing on priciple but I'm focused on Iraq & you're looking at the big picture. Until the big picture begins to focus, more than it has, let's take one at a time.

One good thing about all the suicide bombers coming to Iraq to play in the big boys game, we can take them out faster.
 
The press has plenty of pictures of the vehicles they're driving into Iraq, I say we take em out on the way.


As for being there a long time, I'd be surprised if we're gone in a year too, I think it will take at least that long to get all the resistance fighters gone. Then, I don't know, it will be interesting to see what kind of government gets set up and whether the people respect it or not.
 
I don't think that, as of yet, we have captured any cities. I think that it will be a long conflict. We'll win in the end, but I do think that the conflict will be a long one. Perhaps as long as six months, maybe longer, maybe shorter. Hard to say really, but that fact that we have yet to capture a city is a sign of longevity.
 
I'm bookmarking this thread Gato. Better edit while you can.
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If we stay past 6 months with the force we have now, I'll be surprised. If we stay, it'll be like we were in Germany during the 1990's. About 25,000 personnel. Once the area is 'stabilized', we'll pare back to nothing over a period of 2 or 3 years.
 
Assuming that no other middle east countries get involved...i can still see it turning into another palestine yet with even more Arab anger and retaliation. In such a case i can picture our commanders screaming 'Vietnam', give us more troops. With daily attacks i'd be suprised to see such a small force. And that's what this will turn into by the time we've exterminated the belligerent Iraqi government. Small, insignificant repetitive attacks(suicide bombers etc) and on a daily basis that in the long run won't be so insignificant.
 
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