Squiggy
ThunderDick
From the NY Times today....
At Many Stores, Early Numbers Disappoint
By TRACIE ROZHON
Published: December 5, 2003
Retail sales in November, including the bellwether Thanksgiving weekend, failed to rise to analysts' expectations, suggesting that the Christmas season may not be as good as some retailers hoped a month or two ago.
But for luxury retailers, the season still looks upbeat. Shoppers tended to buy higher-priced, higher-profit items last month, even at discount stores.
"By and large, the analysts' estimates had been fairly reasonable, but the retailers didn't perform," said Ken Perkins, a research analyst at Thomson First Call, which tracks analysts' predictions. "It doesn't mean that definitely December will be bad, too, but I bet you'll see a lot of December estimates pared down."
Wal-Mart, the largest retail chain, reported a 3.9 percent increase in sales at stores that have been open for at least a year, a figure in line with company forecasts. Wal-Mart shares fell 10 percent last month, though they gained 33 cents yesterday, to close at $53.02.
Generally, however, merchants fell short of estimates for October as well as November, Mr. Perkins said, "and that doesn't usually bode well for sales in the holiday period."
High-end department stores like Saks, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom fared better in November, as did Wal-Mart's closest rival, Target, which said sales rose 6.2 percent, more than a full percentage point higher than the average of analysts' estimates.
Target shares rose 92 cents yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, to close at $40.15. Nordstrom shares, which have risen more than 10 percent in the last month, slipped 29 cents yesterday, to close at $34.21. Shares of Saks Inc., which had gained 9 percent in November, gave up most of that gain yesterday, falling 94 cents, or more than 6 percent, to close at $14.46.
Kohl's, one of the hottest retailers in the last five years because of its mix of department store and discounter merchandise, said same-store sales fell 4.4 percent last month, more than the 3.1 percent predicted by analysts. In a sign of how fast shoppers' tastes can change, Kohl's posted a 25.9 percent gain in November sales just two years ago.
Kohl's stock has fallen more than 15 percent in the last month but rallied yesterday, closing at $46.96, up $1.67.
Sears, Roebuck also fell below what its executives had forecast for November. It said sales were down 3.6 percent last month; analysts had anticipated a 1 percent increase.
Shares of Sears dropped $2.27, or more than 4 percent, to close at $52.59.
The teenage retailing sector continued to have its runaway winners, led by the California-based Pacific Sunwear, which operates both PacSun and d.e.m.o. shops, reporting an 11.7 percent increase in November - three percentage points more than analysts had predicted.
Aéropostale, another winner, said its sales rose 10.3 percent last month - again, three percentage points above analysts' forecasts.
Abercrombie & Fitch posted another disappointing month, with sales falling 13 percent - more than twice the 5 percent decline that analysts had expected. American Eagle Outfitters also said same-store sales declined, but just slightly more than estimates for November - and far less than in October. Eagle said sales were off 6.2 percent last month, after a drop of 18 percent the month before.
Over all, luxury goods stores continued to rally. Analysts said that President Bush's tax cuts, a strengthening stock market and improving job security, as well as pent-up demand, drove affluent shoppers into stores like Saks Fifth Avenue, where $1,000 watches with diamond-studded bezels and green crocodile bands were big sellers.
Most stores, however, are no longer benefiting from the tax cuts or from the extra cash that many homeowners had after a wave of mortgage refinancings earlier in the year, Mr. Perkins of Thomson First Call said. "The benefits of the tax refunds are drying up," he said, "and the re-fi wave is ebbing."
Compounding the problem for discount stores, he said, is that "there isn't any must-have item for Christmas, especially among toys."
At Many Stores, Early Numbers Disappoint
By TRACIE ROZHON
Published: December 5, 2003
Retail sales in November, including the bellwether Thanksgiving weekend, failed to rise to analysts' expectations, suggesting that the Christmas season may not be as good as some retailers hoped a month or two ago.
But for luxury retailers, the season still looks upbeat. Shoppers tended to buy higher-priced, higher-profit items last month, even at discount stores.
"By and large, the analysts' estimates had been fairly reasonable, but the retailers didn't perform," said Ken Perkins, a research analyst at Thomson First Call, which tracks analysts' predictions. "It doesn't mean that definitely December will be bad, too, but I bet you'll see a lot of December estimates pared down."
Wal-Mart, the largest retail chain, reported a 3.9 percent increase in sales at stores that have been open for at least a year, a figure in line with company forecasts. Wal-Mart shares fell 10 percent last month, though they gained 33 cents yesterday, to close at $53.02.
Generally, however, merchants fell short of estimates for October as well as November, Mr. Perkins said, "and that doesn't usually bode well for sales in the holiday period."
High-end department stores like Saks, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom fared better in November, as did Wal-Mart's closest rival, Target, which said sales rose 6.2 percent, more than a full percentage point higher than the average of analysts' estimates.
Target shares rose 92 cents yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, to close at $40.15. Nordstrom shares, which have risen more than 10 percent in the last month, slipped 29 cents yesterday, to close at $34.21. Shares of Saks Inc., which had gained 9 percent in November, gave up most of that gain yesterday, falling 94 cents, or more than 6 percent, to close at $14.46.
Kohl's, one of the hottest retailers in the last five years because of its mix of department store and discounter merchandise, said same-store sales fell 4.4 percent last month, more than the 3.1 percent predicted by analysts. In a sign of how fast shoppers' tastes can change, Kohl's posted a 25.9 percent gain in November sales just two years ago.
Kohl's stock has fallen more than 15 percent in the last month but rallied yesterday, closing at $46.96, up $1.67.
Sears, Roebuck also fell below what its executives had forecast for November. It said sales were down 3.6 percent last month; analysts had anticipated a 1 percent increase.
Shares of Sears dropped $2.27, or more than 4 percent, to close at $52.59.
The teenage retailing sector continued to have its runaway winners, led by the California-based Pacific Sunwear, which operates both PacSun and d.e.m.o. shops, reporting an 11.7 percent increase in November - three percentage points more than analysts had predicted.
Aéropostale, another winner, said its sales rose 10.3 percent last month - again, three percentage points above analysts' forecasts.
Abercrombie & Fitch posted another disappointing month, with sales falling 13 percent - more than twice the 5 percent decline that analysts had expected. American Eagle Outfitters also said same-store sales declined, but just slightly more than estimates for November - and far less than in October. Eagle said sales were off 6.2 percent last month, after a drop of 18 percent the month before.
Over all, luxury goods stores continued to rally. Analysts said that President Bush's tax cuts, a strengthening stock market and improving job security, as well as pent-up demand, drove affluent shoppers into stores like Saks Fifth Avenue, where $1,000 watches with diamond-studded bezels and green crocodile bands were big sellers.
Most stores, however, are no longer benefiting from the tax cuts or from the extra cash that many homeowners had after a wave of mortgage refinancings earlier in the year, Mr. Perkins of Thomson First Call said. "The benefits of the tax refunds are drying up," he said, "and the re-fi wave is ebbing."
Compounding the problem for discount stores, he said, is that "there isn't any must-have item for Christmas, especially among toys."
