Did the United States economy go through a recession in 2001 or did it not? Only the National Bureau of Economic Research can say for sure, but others with a political bone to pick are sure to weigh in on this normally arcane question.
With an election under way in the United States, the 2001 recession is once more coming under the microscope, courtesy of some new data released Friday by the U.S. Commerce Department's bureau of economic analysis (BEA).
Until then, the answer to the question was obvious: of course it did.
The NBER, the accepted arbiter of recession dating in the United States, had declared that the recession lasted from March until November of 2001. And the official data on U.S. gross domestic product said the economy had contracted in each of the first three quarters of 2001, which easily met the conventional rule of thumb that two consecutive quarters of decline equals a recession.
It was all very tidy until Friday, when the BEA released its latest GDP numbers, including historical revisions going back to 2001. Such revisions, which are based on more complete information than was available earlier, are routine.
But the BEA changed the 2001 story. The new version is that the economy contracted in the first quarter, grew in the second quarter and then shrank again in the third quarter before embarking on the steady expansion that has continued to this day.