Geologist talks about Hydrocarbons..

MrBishop

MrBishop

Well-Known Member
...and reality. He's speaking specifically about Canada's situation, but also touches on world oil, coal and natural gas consumption and available stock.

http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2006/11/Hughes112506audio.mp3

Well, I've been involved in geology all my life. Graduated back in 1972/1975 with an advanced degree. Worked initially in the private sector on energy. And I've been employed by the Geological Survey of Canada for over 30 years. Worked on energy all of that time. I'm a government scientist, but I'm also a public servant. I consider part of my role, basically, as looking at the security of the people that are paying my salary. I do consulting work with private sector energy companies only because of my expertise in Canadian energy resources. Some of those individuals have shared their forecasts of things like Canadian gas supply with me, which has caused me to be very concerned about the long-term energy security and sustainability for the Canadian people that pay my salary. So, that's where I'm coming at it from. I, initially, became concerned about gas 11 years ago. I did an analysis of Canadian gas supplies at that point in time, and saw a time of serious supply shortfalls, which are now playing themselves out at about this time - likely to get worse going forward. Canadian production, essentially, peaked in 2002. It's remained more or less stable since that time, but only through record amounts of drilling. If drilling is cut back for whatever reason - and it looks like it is, because of the slight dip in the price of gas - we can expect some fairly steep declines in Canadian gas supply. Five years ago, I became concerned about the total energy picture, and, at that time, I put together my own analysis based on all the available data of global oil, global gas, North American gas, coal, global coal, North American coal. And peak coal looks like it's occurred in the Lower 48. The U.S. is now an importer of coal. I looked at electricity: electricity security, basically, crucial for any First World country to have a reliable electricity supply; how that electricity is being generated by fuel; the growth in natural gas-fired generation; and the gas supply implications of that on a reliable electricity supply. Also, globally, population growth by country is very important. And in particular, per capita energy consumption increases; what's happened in the past; available forecast of what's likely to happen in the future; total global population; and the implications of non-energy supply such as agricultural soil, food, water, minerals - all of those resources, which are crucial, really, to maintaining our society and civilization going forward.
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A wee bit long, but well worth the listen.
 
Also in the news this week, one group of scientists are working to recover frozen methane from the ocean floor for use as a green fuel source. Another group of scientists are shitting themselves publicly over fears that undersea tectonics might release those very same hydrocarbons and provoke runaway global climate change. A third group is trying to convince people that temps have already warmed up enough that the ocean is releasing those methane deposits all by it's lonesome.


But global warming is manmade, according to all of them.
 
Nuclear energy plants produce clean & abundant electricity.

Energy is our only concern. Without it, we return to caves. Our entire existence is built around energy. At the moment, we have plenty. Those who want alternatives, which would be nice, either suggest things that eat up our food supply while using old sources, or eat up more energy (battery-powered) than we produce.

Alternative energy will need to be cheap, clean & sufficient to cover all our needs.

There is a constant complaint that our use is up, per capita & overall. Might that be due to every new toy is designed to be powered? How about the ever increasing population? Maybe immigration...the folks in the west have had most of these toys for some time. Most of their useage is replacement for old gadgets. However, the massive influx of 3rd worlders to western societies and/or their goods, are all new purchases.

The solution can be either, shut the greens off & build newer, cleaner producers of power, or limit immigration & technology.
 
Don't confuse the sources of energy, Gonz.

Nuclear, solar, hydro etc..energy will help industry to a point, but won't help transportation of goods or people from A to B - for that ATM, you need hydrocarbons... which we don't have 'plenty of' and what is left is becoming more and more expensive to get to and uses up more and more power to get out.

Imagine this. In the 60's, the Arabs used up 1 barrel of oil to power the machines to remove 100 barrels of oil from the ground ( 1:100). The numbers are now 1:25

Alberta's looking at 1:6 for the bitumen. Corn Ethanol is about 1.25:1 Soy is .75:1

Once that 1:25 for oil starts dropping, you can see the price of crude going up with it. Can you say $250/barrel? Gas shortages at the pumps? Gas coupons and weekly usage maximums?

What buddy is saying is that we won't have to worry about humans creating a carbon dioxide crunch in 20 years and runaway global warming. He's saying that we'll run out of affordable hydrocarbons (oil, coal, natural gas), long before then.
 
Professur said:
Also in the news this week, one group of scientists are working to recover frozen methane from the ocean floor for use as a green fuel source. Another group of scientists are shitting themselves publicly over fears that undersea tectonics might release those very same hydrocarbons and provoke runaway global climate change. A third group is trying to convince people that temps have already warmed up enough that the ocean is releasing those methane deposits all by it's lonesome.


But global warming is manmade, according to all of them.
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More methane in the Permafrost and THAT's already melting.
 
Also very nice, but they aren't going to keep 400,000lbs of 747 in the sky for long.

*Read a bit more - 4 hour runs? It's a backup battery for the house.
 
Read it again. That's a speculative for the 20kwh battery. 5Kwh Max output usage for 4 hours. They then go on to tell you what 5Kw of consumption is:

Five kilowatts over four hours -- how much is that? Imagine your trash compactor, food processor, vacuum cleaner, stereo, sewing machine, one surface unit of an electric range and thirty-three 60-watt light bulbs all running nonstop for four hours each day before the house battery runs out. That's a pretty exciting place to live.
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5Kw is about 45A of 110V. Running solar ... that's 45A .... of free energy ... just pay the storage and panels and all the rest of the kit. Mum's entire house only has a 60A entry. Far more than enough for an energy conscious family's daily use.
 
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