pack your bags. Where will you be April 13, 2029?

Thulsa Doom

Thulsa Doom

New Member
300 to 1? I can see gamblers putting money down on this in Vegas already. First the disaster in Asia now this. Whats that REM song again...

Asteroid 2004 MN4 has slim chance of Earth hit
BEIJING, Dec. 26 (Xinhuanet)-- A recently discovered 1,300 feet long asteroid -- 2004 MN4 --has a slim chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029, according to the statements of NASA.

2004 MN4, whose sightings are rarely available has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

"2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029." said the Dec. 24 update statement from NASA.

On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."

2004 MN4 was discovered in June and spotted again this month. It is about a quarter mile wide.

That's bigger than the space rock that carved the Barringer Meteor Crater in Arizona, and bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. If an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 hit the Earth, it would do considerable localized or regional damage. It would not cause damage on a global scale.

Scientists project an asteroid's future travels based on observations of its current orbit around the Sun. On computer models, the future orbits are not lines but rather windows of possibility. The orbit projections for 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029 cover a wide swath of space that includes the location where Earth will be. Additional observations will allow refined orbit forecasts — more like a line instead of a window.

"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.


"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
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"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
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Ain't that the truth. :)

If one gets us, given the insignificant amount of actually looking, we'll probably only have days or hours of warning.
 
I think we need a seriously close call just to wake us up a bit. As in sub-atmosphere breaching. Enough to scare the pants off most of the egotisticle world leaders. Maybe make them realize we are all powerless children on a cosmic scale. Nothing like a white hot rock 1,300 feet long shooting visibly overhead like a giant bullet to sober people up real quick. But an impact would be bad...
 
It would be So neat if that sucka would plow into us.
But with a 24 year warning we'd be pretty lame if we couldn't stop it! Doncha think?
 
In 24 years this so-called global warming will have us on our knees. We will need the mini nuclear-esque winter of this rock to bring us back into rights.

Its interplanetary high stakes poker. YEEEEHAAA!
 
chcr said:
Okay, how?
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Hmmm...we have the technology now to send nukes to intercept...not to destroy, but to nudge out of the way. Then we'd only have to worry about smaller pieces loosened from the blast...;)
 
Smaller pieces burn up in the atmosphere. The problem with nukes is calculating all the variables and delivery.
 
chcr said:
Smaller pieces burn up in the atmosphere. The problem with nukes is calculating all the variables and delivery.
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Variables and delivery? Don't you mean impact and size? :D
 
Arm.JPG
 
But But But
It coulda been 24 years of news stories
a need for a national mission

Now we're stuck with...
 
Its clearly a government conspiracy. I bet they are stocking up kerosene and toilet paper now so they can sell it at black market prices on April 14.
 
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