So, who ya gonna believe?

jimpeel

jimpeel

Well-Known Member
Three stories, juxtaposed, on conflicting reports.

SOURCE

US faces worst recession in 26 years
By Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: October 19 2008 22:23 | Last updated: October 19 2008 22:23

The US economy appears to be plunging into what many experts believe will be its worst recession since 1982.

Senior officials at the Treasury and Federal Reserve are confident that the rescue plan for US banks will succeed in preventing a financial system meltdown and ensure there will not be a repeat of the Great Depression. But they know that a sharp economic downturn is already baked in the cake. They do not,however, know how deep or protracted it will be.

Price-cutting: the US economic downturn has resulted in slumping retail sales as consumer confidence collapses

EDITOR’S CHOICE
Lex: US fundamentals - Oct-19Confidence plunges among US consumers - Oct-17Full coverage: US downturn - Oct-03Lex: Depression obsession - Oct-17US manufacturing production plummets - Oct-16Bernanke warns of slow recovery - Oct-15

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But then there's this:

SOURCE

Leading indicators rise in September
8 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) — The economy's health improved for the first time in five months in September as supplier deliveries and new orders strengthened, a private research group said Monday.

The New York-based Conference Board said its monthly forecast of future economic activity rose 0.3 percent, a better reading than the 0.2 percent drop expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

The index had fallen a revised 0.9 percent in August and 0.7 percent in July.

A one-time jump in the money supply as the federal government undertook a series of expensive bailouts helped September's index, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

In September, the government seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest funders of mortgages in the U.S. It made an $85 billion emergency loan to American International Group Inc. The Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe pumped $180 billion into money markets to free up lending between banks and the government undertook a $700 billion rescue of troubled bank assets.

"The trend is still downwards, and October's index will plunge," Shepherdson said. Down 3.3 percent for the year, the index is "consistent with recession, and it has not hit bottom yet."

Ken Goldstein, a labor economist at the Conference Board, presented a slightly sunnier picture.

"Data on hand reflect a contracting economy, but not one in free fall," Goldstein said. "More likely, what's going in the financial market is a stretching of the recovery process — which could take a full year to develop."

Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September, including the money supply and the index of consumer expectations. The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, an indicator of credit conditions, also narrowed. The negative contributors were building permits, unemployment claims, stock prices and weekly manufacturing hours.

The cutoff day for data in the index was Oct. 17.
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And this:

SOURCE

September home sales up 65% from last year in Southern California
Experts say the numbers reflect attitudes before the economic crisis worsened, and warn that despite the increase, the real estate market is likely to suffer.
By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
10:43 AM PDT, October 20, 2008

Sinking home values continued to drive home sales in September as bargain hunters snared properties at 2003 prices.

The median Southern California home sales price was $308,500 in September, the lowest since May 2003 and down 33% from the September 2007 price of $462,000, according to real estate research firm MDA DataQuick.

The number of homes sold in Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and San Diego counties shot up 65% compared with September 2007. Fifty percent of homes sold last month had been foreclosed.

Real estate experts said despite the increase in September sales, the real estate market is likely to suffer along with the rest of the economy.

September's figures reflect home purchase decisions that were made in mid- to late-summer, before the dramatic worsening of the nation's economic crisis in recent weeks, said MDA DataQuick president John Walsh.


"Over the next few weeks our sales data will begin to show how the meltdown in financial markets this fall has impacted housing demand," Walsh said in a statement.

Since September, the stock market has declined sharply and unemployment in California has remained close to 8%. Mortgage interest rates have also been rising, elevating the cost of home purchases.

A total of 20,497 homes closed escrow in the Southern California in September, up 5.8% from 19,366 in August. Sales were up most in Riverside County, which posted a 106% gain from the same month a year ago. Riverside and San Bernardino counties also recorded the steepest year-to-year price declines in the region, with the median sales price down 37% compared with a year ago.

In Riverside County, 69% of homes sold in September had been foreclosed, while foreclosed properties comprised 63% of San Bernardino County homes sold last month. Foreclosed homes made up 39% of Los Angeles County homes sold in September and 37% of Orange County homes sold last month.

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I thought there was no money out there to borrow. I thought the banks were in some kinda crisis and had no funds to loan. How can this be?
 
Just wait....if Nobama wins, our economy will be wines & roses on 11/05/08
 
Gonz said:
NY Times, LA Times, Washington Post, Wall St Journal, Time, Newsweek, CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, FoxNews.....
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Can you link to an article on any of those that says "our economy will be wines & roses on 11/05/08"? So far it seems like you made it up.
 
The first says that it's downwards..
the second as well..
the third: September's figures reflect home purchase decisions that were made in mid- to late-summer, before the dramatic worsening of the nation's economic crisis in recent weeks, said MDA DataQuick president John Walsh.
 
Don't know why we're even having this problem...If we had let things collapse, the few people profiteering would've stuck out like sore thumbs and could've been dealt with accordingly.
 
Gato_Solo said:
Don't know why we're even having this problem...If we had let things collapse, the few people profiteering would've stuck out like sore thumbs and could've been dealt with accordingly.
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Too many people with close ties (read money invested) to our government stood to take a bath.
 
spike said:
Can you link to an article on any of those that says "our economy will be wines & roses on 11/05/08"? So far it seems like you made it up.
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Must everything be spelled out for you?

Look at todays date.

Look at Election Days date.

Look at the date I wrote.

Using 45 years worth of observation, I used history to make an off the cuff prediction of what will be said should Obama get elected, after all, he is the messiah.
 
Gonz said:
Must everything be spelled out for you?

Look at todays date.

Look at Election Days date.

Look at the date I wrote.

Using 45 years worth of observation, I used history to make an off the cuff prediction of what will be said should Obama get elected, after all, he is the messiah.
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So you claimed something to be true that you actually just made up....again.
 
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