October Surprise

[ResearchMonkey]

There are those who have screamed about doing nothing about North Korea and Iran while instead going into Iraq. They have claimed the real threat is North Korea and Iran.

What if . . . .?

• What if we did simultaneous air strikes on both nuclear programs?
  
  
• What if we took out those threats in fast and hard swoop with the might of US military assets?
  
  
• What if those threats were set back several decades in their quest to be part of the elite nuclear club?
  
  
• What if we had seven fully combat ready aircraft carrier strike groups with-in range of North Korea?
  
  
• What if we already had three or more carrier groups as well as land based assets with-in striking range of Iran?
  
  
• What if you had untold numbers of Los Angeles Class submarines for those who may want to make a challenge move?
  
  
• What if you had several Ohio Class platforms deployed just for fun?

Would the left then caterwaul “preemptive” “unfair” “imperialism” “nazi”? Would they then turn against the advice they had repeated so many times?

What if the October surprise came early?

 

[MrBishop]

What does this link have to do with Iran and North Korea? It's a show of force to China...similar to what they did a few years ago, but with more ships in the water. Sure...North Korea's close geographically to where this might take place, but boats in the water vs. nuclear weapons don't have as much of an impact.

How about placing some short/medium range nukes on bases in South Korea and Taiwan? How about in Iraq? hmmm....

I seriously doubt that anyone who you're trying to ping on here is suggesting a pre-emptive strike on Iran or North Korea, or Syria for that matter.

Shows of force are fine though...and maybe a few nicely situated military bases in Iraq, near the borders of Syria, Iran, Kuwait, Afghanistan...would do it too.

 

[Gonz]

You're heading down the right path the Bish. Just a little farther.

 

[MrBishop]

You're heading down the right path the Bish. Just a little farther.

The war on Iraq sent one hell of a message to the local countries...that's for sure, but not effective enough. Semi-permanent shows of force and determination through the 14 or so Military bases in Iraq is good as well. Who else should we be showing off to? Pakistan? Saudi Arabia? The UAE?

What's the next step in the right direction, Gonz?

 

[Gonz]

Scenario 1

"Hand over the Al Qaeda members"

"NO!"

"you lose"
ka-blammm

"oh shit"


Scenario 2

"Leave for exile, or else"

"NO!!"

"You lose"
KA-BLAMM

"oh shit"


Scenario 3...any takers? No? Hmmm, maybe when the US says it'll do something, it'll happen. Let's not piss 'em off.

*stares around looking for next preemptive target*

 

[ResearchMonkey]

Since we are currently loathed abroad, what better time than now to piss off France even more? Can they hate us any more than they do now?

Scenario 3: We will not tolerate any rouge nuclear states.

Two down in a single afternoon! . . . anyone else wanna test the waters?

A new 70% approval rating for Bush (thanx libby's, for making the people understand just how dangerous NK is really is)

The lessons learned in Afgani and Iraq, combined with the sheer firepower of a fast attack wave from seven carrier strike groups; North Korea would be neutered in three hours time.

China and Japan doesn’t want NK to have nukes any more than we do, prolly even less so.

Not saying this will happen, but I would bet Kim Jong-il isn't ignoring any of this.

 

[MrBishop]

Since we are currently loathed abroad, what better time than now to piss off France even more? Can they hate us any more than they do now?

Scenario 3: We will not tolerate any rouge nuclear states.

Two down in a single afternoon! . . . anyone else wanna test the waters?

A new 70% approval rating for Bush (thanx libby's, for making the people understand just how dangerous NK is really is)

The lessons learned in Afgani and Iraq, combined with the sheer firepower of a fast attack wave from seven carrier strike groups; North Korea would be neutered in three hours time.

China and Japan doesn’t want NK to have nukes any more than we do, prolly even less so.

Not saying this will happen, but I would bet Kim Jong-il isn't ignoring any of this.

PSst...If ol' Kim Jong-il already has nukes...a nice well palced one will desimate the fleet.

As for Neutering NK in 3 hours....you have got to be fuckin' joking. This isn't a rag-tag army like you've seen in Afghanistan or Iraq....their army kinda outnumbers the USA's army.

Pop : 21.2 millions.

Budget : 26.6 % ( GDP ).

Defense Force : 1.3 millions.

- Regulars Troops :

1) Army : 1 millions.

2) Navy : 46.000

3) Air Force : 82.000

and many auto-defense militias ( +/- 275.000 )

2500 tanks
4400 Arm-Veh
7500 Artillery (Towed or not)
11,000 Anti-Aircraft

Short and Medium range missiles aplenty
420+ Fighter jets and bombers
1,100+ Boats and subs
etc etc...

North Korea continues to position forces into the area just north of the DMZ— in a position to threaten Combined Forces Command and all of Seoul with little warning. Seventy percent of their active force, including approximately 700,000 troops, over 8,000 artillery systems, and 2,000 tanks, is postured within 90 miles of the Demilitarized Zone. This percentage continues to rise despite the June 2000 summit. Most of this force in the forward area is protected in over 4,000 underground facilities, out of over 11,000 nationwide. From their current locations, these forces can attack with minimal preparations or warning.

source

Higher population density as well. Not exactly the wind-blown remnants of an army that we've been facing recently. You'd have to nuke the place to neutralize them within that 3 day period.

 

[Winky]

NK is no threat
they will whither away like Cuba
be reunified like Germany.

No RM as much as you'd like to see the U.S.
go rampaging across the Globe
we have become far to PC for that.
And certainly your timing is WAY off!
Not a durn thing can happen until the Presidential
election is over. Even if we are smacked again 9-11
style no major military action will be forthcoming.

Now after Bushy boy gets another four years...

Nah not even then!

Iran will putter along in its current state as we 'try'
to keep them from developing a viable nuclear weapons
program.

Israelis will keep getting blow'd up and striking back at their tormentors in a limited fashion.

American service men (and women?) will keep coming home in flag draped coffins.

The American economy will continue to BOOM
and Americans will still say "super size me"!

The important things will be lost in the din of
popular issues of the day

Libby's will continue to be clueless

and the beat goes on
the beat goes on...

 

[Winky]

Oh and Bish don't you type of folks ever
get tired of being so totally wrong?
(Guess not)
You guys claimed we'd get our asses handed to us in 91
and again in 2003

Oddly enough you can say that NK’d whip us
because we will never go to war with them.

But if there was a confrontation, who’d bet that we don't know where ever last nuke every last missile that they have is located? They’d never get a shot off.

We'd knock them out with conventional weapons in the blink of an eye.

In lieu of that ya gotta know that that we'd never them nukes in a first strike (that PC thing again) Seoul would have to be a glassed over smoking hole in the ground before we could go nuclear on their asses.

or pray that Patriot batteries could knock down (they have been modified for this) the Nodongs before SF was pulverized. Let ONE of their missiles launch towards the U.S. and finally after all these
years we'd get to see American Nuclear forces in action.

One possible result of such an event would be that we wouldn't have to pussyfoot around no more, with other nations that have nuclear ambitions.
Yup upon the first inkling that someone was trying to join the nuke club we'd tell em'
Oh no you don't! We will preempt yo ass right now. BOOM!

 

[MrBishop]

NK is no threat
they will whither away like Cuba
be reunified like Germany....

You're fooling yourself into thinking that NK will dissapear or become irrelevant. They're not Cuba where the nastiest weapons that they might have are RPGs. As for reunification...I can see that. Once NK invades SK.

I don't quite understand where you get that Liberals are clueless. I think that we're a bit more broad-minded and have come to the realization that all big things are made up of lots and lots of little things.

The important things will be lost in the din of
popular issues of the day

?

 

[MrBishop]

Oh and Bish don't you type of folks ever
get tired of being so totally wrong?
(Guess not)
You guys claimed we'd get our asses handed to us in 91
and again in 2003

Read your own work...'tis the Pentagon that ordered the Body Bags in an effort to get ahead if Saddam used chemical/Biological weapons. He didn't have them...didn't use them...no need for the body bags. Unless they can be used on non-combattants and Iraqui citizens. Plenty of those needed.

Oddly enough you can say that NK’d whip us
because we will never go to war with them.

I didn't say that they'd whip you...I said that it wouldn't be a cake-walk like Afghanistan and Iraq.

But if there was a confrontation, who’d bet that we don't know where ever last nuke every last missile that they have is located? They’d never get a shot off.

Providing that you had a warning of some type. No warning, no time to get birds in the air...plenty of time to 'get a shot off'.

We'd knock them out with conventional weapons in the blink of an eye.

I'm assuming that you're talking about the missiles and nukes and not the army/navy/air force. Even then, you're making a lot of assumptions

In lieu of that ya gotta know that that we'd never them nukes in a first strike (that PC thing again) Seoul would have to be a glassed over smoking hole in the ground before we could go nuclear on their asses.

or pray that Patriot batteries could knock down (they have been modified for this) the Nodongs before SF was pulverized. Let ONE of their missiles launch towards the U.S. and finally after all these
years we'd get to see American Nuclear forces in action.

So...you're saying that Bush would bend to PC doctrine and NOT nuke North Korea if NK used them first? That's almost laughable..if only it wasn't so damn scary.

Kim Jong-il is a nutbar... I'd bet that he'd try a pre-emptive strike.

One possible result of such an event would be that we wouldn't have to pussyfoot around no more, with other nations that have nuclear ambitions.
Yup upon the first inkling that someone was trying to join the nuke club we'd tell em'
Oh no you don't! We will preempt yo ass right now. BOOM!

You think that China might object to you nuking a neighbour? America already has a big-ol Nuclear deterrant, but people aren't paying attention to it. They're continuing on their research because they want a deterrant too.

 

[Winky]

"I don't quite understand where you get that Liberals are clueless. I think that we're a bit more broad-minded and have come to the realization that all big things are made up of lots and lots of little things."
Oh My goodness there Big Guy!
Let me save that one for a whole thread unto its self.
(and believe me I will)
Heh heh.

Hmm OK I'll play along...

Let us outline all the possible scenarios with NK.

(feel free to add your own as we go along)

Decades from now the Great grandkid of Kim Jong Il will still rule over NK wait he doesn't have any Kid's does he?

They actually initiate military action and we will nuke them into oblivion.

Their nutcase leader croaks and ala the Soviet Russian defeat we win by default and they reunify with the South.

 

[MrBishop]

OK...I'll bite.

They unify instead with China and attack South Korea on their way to Beijing.

They do use military force, but not directly against US interests. They sweep south and continue in Malaysia. Can you still nuke em?

 

[Winky]

"I didn't say that they'd whip you...I said that it wouldn't be a cake-walk like Afghanistan and Iraq."

Oh yes it would, we'd suffer very few casualties like before
but the poor South Koreans would die like flys Oh Well.

"Providing that you had a warning of some type. No warning, no time to get birds in the air...plenty of time to 'get a shot off'."

A cursory glance at the link I provided and perhaps some vague knowledge of missile tech would make that statement false.

" I'm assuming that you're talking about the missiles and nukes and not the army/navy/air force. Even then, you're making a lot of assumptions"

We would wipe them out like we did the Iraqi's with out any loss to our forces. But again the collateral damage to civilians would be horrific.

So...you're saying that Bush would bend to PC doctrine and NOT nuke North Korea if NK used them first? That's almost laughable..if only it wasn't so damn scary.

Now we may have something in common, a belief that we could use them, but no. Current military doctrine sez: If there is no threat to the U.S. mainland we can combat rouge state nuclear forces with conventional weapons.
The U.S. doesn't want the distinction of being the only nation on earth to have used nukes TWICE lol.
I have to agree with the logic that we wouldn't need to use nukes at all ever! We can put a precision guided weapon through a window.

"Kim Jong-il is a nutbar... I'd bet that he'd try a pre-emptive strike."

Again the article shows that we'd have plenty of advance warning.
Now if Kerry is in office that won't mean a thing.

"You think that China might object to you nuking a neighbour?"

"We own their ass through the trade we do with them and if they did get pissed so what? Not to mention they have been siding with U.S. throughout this whole thing"

 

[Winky]

"They unify instead with China..."

and you ask why I say Liberals are clueless

now tell me you made that comment in jest
or plead ignorance of the situation
which is it?

Edit:
No wait that response ROCKS!
I thought you were being serious, ya got me!

OK I'll go next but it will be hard to top that one.

 

[MrBishop]

We would wipe them out like we did the Iraqi's with out any loss to our forces. But again the collateral damage to civilians would be horrific

The regular army was thought to have between 300,000 and 350,000 men organized into five corps and 16 divisions. Two-thirds of the soldiers were conscripts, and the majority of the weapons were outdated, experts said. U.S. war planners had predicted that many of these troops would surrender quickly.
The Republican Guard was believed to have between 60,000 and 70,000 men, organized into six divisions. Compared with the regular troops, it was considered an elite force of mostly career soldiers with better equipment, training and pay, and was expected to put up more of a fight. The Guard fell directly under the control of Saddam’s son Qusay and was expected to defend Baghdad, Tikrit, and other regime strongholds.
The elite Special Republican Guard was thought to number some 15,000 men drawn from the most loyal of the regime’s supporters. Responsible for protecting the president and his family, VIPs, and presidential installations, the unit answered directly to Qusay. It had its own heavy armored brigade and own air defense command unit. To guard against coups d’etat from less loyal forces, the Special Republican Guard was generally the only part of the army permitted within central Baghdad

source

More than 4 times the number of troops on the ground and far better trained. Saddam didn't really have aircraft, he certainly didn't have ships and subs. He had about 1/200th the number of anti-aircraft weaponary...etc... like I said before. A HUGE difference between NK and Iraq.
Air-warfare would be an issue...no free reign for stealth bombers in the skies over NK.
Communication centers are more extensive and harder to knock out.
More cities, more bases, more people to knock out.
NK actually has the ability to strike back instead of holding on for dear life.

 

[MrBishop]

"They unify instead with China..."

and you ask why I say Liberals are clueless

now tell me you made that comment in jest
or plead ignorance of the situation
which is it?

Hey...you had them nuking San Francisco. One implauseable turn deserves another.

 

[A.B.Normal]

I always liked this line

Compared with the regular troops, it was considered an elite force of mostly career soldiers with better equipment,

Better equiptment than the regular Iraqis ,but they were the same twelve year old tanks which the US had a 5:1 kill ratio over in the Gulf War and the US had since updated all there equiptment.

 

[Gonz]

a nice well palced one will desimate the fleet.

Yes sir, it will. It will also cause an immediate & reactionary response which will decimate North Korea.

 

[A.B.Normal]

Yes sir, it will. It will also cause an immediate & reactionary response which will decimate North Korea.

Kim Jong-il is a nut bar do you think he really cares .