Swine flu

[catocom]

this has all but dropped out of the news.

It was an overblown thing to start with.

 

[valkyrie]

Quick summary of the way things are over here:
- The schools opening date was delayed until the 7th.
- Most commercial activity will resume tomorrow.
- People are more calmed and informed about the disease.

Other things related to Mexico and the disease:
- The mexicans quarantined in China should be coming back soon.
- Haiti just refused 70tons of rice, beans, sugar and other non perishable food sent by our country to help them. The ship was not even allowed to approach the sea shore and is now back in Veracruz.

And in US news:
- Now there are two deaths related to the swine flu in the US.

Let the Haitians eat dirt pies then.

Seriously, Luis, I have found that ignorance is the real pandemic.

 

[MrBishop]

World Health Organisation (WHO) laboratories have confirmed 4,379 infections with the new strain of H1N1 flu, which the United Nations agency said on Monday has killed at least 49 people.

Its official tally, which tends to lag national reports but is considered more secure, includes 45 deaths in the disease epicentre Mexico, two deaths in the United States, and one each in Canada and Costa Rica. The WHO's latest count includes nearly 1,000 more confirmed cases than its previous tally issued on Sunday. (Reuters)

 

[valkyrie]

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 26

12 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 12 May 2009, 30 countries have officially reported 5251 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 2059 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 56 deaths. The United States has reported 2600 laboratory confirmed human cases, including three deaths. Canada has reported 330 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Costa Rica has reported eight laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (8), China (2, comprising 1 in China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and 1 in mainland China), Colombia (3), Denmark (1), El Salvador (4), France (13), Germany (12), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (9), Japan (4), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (7), Norway (2), Panama (16), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (95), Sweden (2), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (55).

WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus.

Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travelers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases, including influenza.

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO web site on a regular basis.

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 26

 

[Gonz]

In other words, it's a bad cold.

 

[jimpeel]

SOURCE

Report: World Health Organization Investigating Claims of Human Error Behind Swine Flu Virus

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

The World Health Organization is investigating claims made by an Australian researcher that new the H1N1 swine flu virus may have evolved as result of human error.

Adrian Gibbs, 75, said he planned to publish a report saying the never-before-seen strain of influenza may have evolved in eggs used to grow viruses for scientific research and vaccine development, according to Bloomberg News.

The noted virologist said his findings could help better understand the microbe's ability to spread.

World Health Organization Assistant Director-General of Health Security Keiji Fukuda is reviewing the study, Bloomberg reported.

If Gibbs' research is confirmed, Fukuda said it will raise many new questions about the new strain.

"Was this developed in part as a vaccine virus? Was this developed as some sort of research project? And in those instances, was it released on purpose? Was it an accidental release? What would be the circumstances?" he was quoted as saying.

However, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta analyzed the report and concluded there is no evidence to support Gibbs’s conclusion, Bloomberg reported.

 

[valkyrie]

In other words, it's a bad cold.

More people die of regular, common influenza than have died in this outbreak.

 

[MrBishop]

More people die of regular, common influenza than have died in this outbreak.

Granted... but then again, more people catch the common flu than this one. Quick reaction by the WHO and other countries have gone a long way towards stopping the spread...measures which aren't used in the common flu.

This one has a contagion-rate and death-rate higher than a common flu..which is why it's more interesting and deserves more attention.

"H1N1 appears to be more contagious than seasonal influenza," the WHO said in an online statement released today. "The secondary attack rate of seasonal influenza ranges from 5% to 15%. Current estimates of the secondary attack rate of H1N1 range from 22% to 33%." (The secondary attack rate is defined as the frequency of new cases of a disease among the contacts of known cases.)

CIDRAP

Consider it this way...if 40k people die every year (In the USA Alone) from the common flu, and this flu is twice as contagious..then how many people would you expect to have died if nothing had been done to stop it's spread?

Each flu season is unique, but it is estimated that, on average, approximately 5% to 20% of U.S. residents get the flu, and more than 200,000 persons are hospitalized for flu-related complications each year. About 36,000 Americans die on average per year from the complications of flu.

 

[valkyrie]

Granted... but then again, more people catch the common flu than this one. Quick reaction by the WHO and other countries have gone a long way towards stopping the spread...measures which aren't used in the common flu.

This may be true, but we'll never really know for sure.

This one has a contagion-rate and death-rate higher than a common flu..which is why it's more interesting and deserves more attention.


CIDRAP

Consider it this way...if 40k people die every year (In the USA Alone) from the common flu, and this flu is twice as contagious..then how many people would you expect to have died if nothing had been done to stop it's spread?

Depends on how many people come in contact with the infected person. For example, someone who works in a busy restaurant might come in contact with far more people than say... a UNIX admin.

 

[MrBishop]

UPDATE:

13 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 13 May 2009, 33 countries have officially reported 5728 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 2059 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 56 deaths. The United States has reported 3009 laboratory confirmed human cases, including three deaths. Canada has reported 358 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Costa Rica has reported eight laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (8), China (3, comprising 1 in China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and 2 in mainland China), Colombia (6), Cuba (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (4), Finland (2), France (13), Germany (12), Guatemala (3), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (9), Japan (4), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (7), Norway (2), Panama (29), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (98), Sweden (2), Switzerland (1), Thailand (2), and the United Kingdom (68).

WHO

 

[Professur]

Second-Class Medicine
Germans Unhappy with Alternative Swine Flu Vaccine for Politicians

Damage control is the name of the game in Berlin on Monday as politicians rush to deny that they are receiving a better, safer swine flu vaccine than ordinary Germans. The first of 50 million doses arrived in Germany on Monday.

One might think that the arrival in Germany of the first of 50 million doses of swine flu vaccine on Monday might be cause for celebration. But with news breaking over the weekend that top government officials in Berlin will be injected with an alternative vaccine -- one widely seen as safer -- a debate about an alleged two-class medical system has erupted.

SPIEGEL over the weekend reported that Chancellor Angela Merkel, a number of her ministers and other government officials would receive a vaccine manufactured by the pharmaceutical company Baxter -- the same vaccine that the German military opted for, as was reported last week.

The mass-circulation tabloid Bild on Monday plastered the story on its front page on Monday, assuring its readers that "experts are accusing the government" of serving up "second class medicine" to ordinary Germans.

Fevers and Headaches

The controversy centers on an additive included in the vaccine manufactured by pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline. The additive includes an inactive strain of the entire flu virus as opposed to virus fragments. Critics say the additive can increase the risk of side effects from the flu vaccine such as fevers and headaches.

Supporters counter that the additive is safe, and its use allows the drug manufacturer to quickly produce more doses of the vaccine. The SPIEGEL story mentioned that the GlaxoSmithKline vaccine, with the additive, has undergone more testing than the Baxter version.

An Interior Ministry spokesman told SPIEGEL that the Baxter vaccine had been ordered for all ministries and other agencies as well as for the employees of the Paul Ehrlich Institute, the authority responsible for approving vaccines.

Merkel's spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm on Monday denied that Merkel was taking a different vaccine than the one available to ordinary Germans. He said that the Baxter vaccine had been ordered four months ago as part of a deal hammered out one year ago and has nothing to do with recent concerns surrounding the GlaxoSmithKline vaccine.

'Second-Class Medicine'

Still, voices have become raised. The Green Party's health expert Biggi Bender said that the separate vaccines amount to "big risk for the people, little risk for the government. This type of second-class medicine cannot be allowed to exist in a democracy."

Leading physicians also complained about the planned vaccination. The head of the Institute for Hygiene and Public Health at the University of Bonn, Martin Exner, said: "The fact that politicians and top civil servants in ministries will be vaccinated with a vaccine other than the people is a terrible sign. Today politicians must take what they recommend."

Virologist Alexander Kekulé Hall of the University Hospital said the fact "that the members of the Federal Government and the authorities have any other vaccine is a scandal."

The Interior Ministry has also rejected the sharp criticism. A spokeswoman for Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble pointed out that at that time the Baxter vaccine was ordered the differences between the two vaccines was not yet an issue. The Paul Ehrlich Institute has repeatedly defended its decision to provide the population with the GlaxoSmithKline version, known as Pandemrix.

'Alleged Threat'

Germany is not the only government working to contain a potential outbreak of swine flu, the popular though inaccurate name given to the H1N1 flu virus. The UK has seen an increase in cases in recent weeks. As a result, the country has purchased 60 million doses of Pandemrix. Since swine flu emerged, a number of people in the US showing symptoms have died, leading the government to purchase 251 million doses of the swine flu vaccine from various manufacturers. The European Medicines Agency approved Pandemrix for use recently, amid concern for the upcoming winter flu season and the expected uptick in swine flu cases.

Some German politicians have joined Merkel in opting out of the alternative vaccine. Health Minister Ulla Schmidt said in Bild, "I will allow myself to be vaccinated with the same vaccine as the people. It is exactly like the other approved vaccine, safe and effective."

The weekend scandal has drowned out a second debate which has been raging in recent weeks in the US and which has also found resonance here in Germany: whether such a massive vaccination program is necessary in the first place.

Wolf-Dieter Ludwig, chairman of the Drug Commission of the German Medical Association, has called the planned vaccination campaign a "scandal." "The health authorities have fallen for a campaign from the pharmaceutical companies, who simply want to earn money with an alleged threat," he told SPIEGEL.

source

 

[catocom]

meh, standard precautions are still working well in my house.

 

[MrBishop]

We have another 2 weeks or so to wait for ours...the rest of the world is acting like our live guiney pigs for the early versions of the AV.

I'll still get one for my son at the very least..myself as well, most likely. MrsBish is NOT fond of needles.

 

[MrBishop]

UPDATE: WHO

New numbers:

As of 11 October 2009, worldwide there have been more than 399232 laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 and over 4735 deaths reported to WHO.

As many countries have stopped counting individual cases, particularly of milder illness, the case count is significantly lower than the actually number of cases that have occurred. WHO is actively monitoring the progress of the pandemic through frequent consultations with the WHO Regional Offices and member states and through monitoring of multiple sources of data.

Influenza activity continues to increase in the northern temperate zones across the world. In North America, the United States is now experiencing nationwide rates of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) well above seasonal baseline rates with high rates of pandemic H1N1 2009 virus detections in clinical laboratory specimens. Canada is reporting increases in ILI rates for the third straight week with some provinces now crossing the baseline. Mexico also reports high intensity and active transmission in some areas of the country. Western Europe and northern Asia are experiencing increased rates of ILI, well above baseline in some countries but activity is generally not as widespread as in North America. Of note, nearly half of the influenza viruses detected in China are seasonal influenza A (H3N2) viruses, which appeared prior to and is co-circulating with pandemic H1N1 2009 virus.

The tropical zones continue to have transmission that is mixed as some countries have now peaked and are declining, while others are experiencing increases. In the tropical region of the Americas, several Caribbean Island nations are now reporting increased rates of illness while Brazil, Costa Rica and other countries on the continent are declining. In South Asia, most countries now report a decline in rates of illness.

Influenza rates in the temperate zones of the Southern Hemisphere have all returned to below baseline levels and very few detections of pandemic H1N1 2009 virus are being reported.

Three articles of interest published this week in the peer reviewed literature reported three different series of seriously ill pandemic influenza patients in Canada, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand. Several important observations were made including:

• A significant portion of patients with severe disease requiring intensive care had no predisposing conditions. The numbers are not directly comparable as the studies categorized conditions differently but nearly 1/3 of ICU patients in Australia and New Zealand had no predisposing conditions. 98% of ICU cases in Canada had a comorbid condition, which in this report included hypertension, smoking, and substance abuse, but only 30% had comorbid conditions that were considered "major". In Mexico, 84% of critical patients had an underlying condition, which in the report included hypertension, ever having smoked, and hyperlipidemia, conditions that are not considered risk factors for severe influenza outcomes. All three groups were impressed by the number of severe cases occurring in previously healthy individuals.
• The researchers in Australia and New Zealand reaffirmed that infants under the age of 1 year have the highest risk of developing severe illness. The average age of ICU patients was 32, 40, and 44 years in Canada, Australia/New Zealand, and Mexico respectively.
• The study from Australia and New Zealand estimated that the demand for ICU beds due to viral pneumonia during the pandemic was as much higher than in previous influenza seasons. The Canadian study reported that intensive care capacity in Winnipeg, Manitoba, was "seriously challenged" at the peak of the outbreak with full occupancy of all regional ICU beds.

All pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viruses analyzed to date have been antigenically and genetically similar to A/California/7/2009-like pandemic H1N1 2009 virus.

 

[Gonz]

399232 laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 and over 4735 deaths reported to WHO.

What is that, a tenth of a pecent or something? How does that compare to the regular flu?

 

[MrBishop]

What is that, a tenth of a pecent or something? How does that compare to the regular flu?

In the U.S., an estimated 25–50 million cases of the flu are currently reported each year — leading to 150,000 hospitalizations and 30,000–40,000 deaths yearly. If these figures were to be estimated incorporating the rest of the world, there would be an average of approximately 1 billion cases of flu, around 3–5 million cases of severe illness, and 300,000–500,000 deaths annually.

That's for a full year based on a variant of the flu which many people have already had and have some measure of natural defense to. Roughly 90% of the deaths from the regular flu occur in the very young or very old and are related to secondary diseases like pneumonia.

**How is this different?
H1N1 is a new variant...for which nobody has some measure of natural defense to. Only 50-60% die because of secondary illnesses. It's not limited to children or seniors. H1N1 is just getting started and the numbers are ramping up to match the seasonal flu's numbers

AND

All this is in addition to the regular flu's numbers. It's not like having H1N1 will stop you from getting the seasonal flu as well.

 

[Luis G]

We have another 2 weeks or so to wait for ours...the rest of the world is acting like our live guiney pigs for the early versions of the AV.

I'll still get one for my son at the very least..myself as well, most likely. MrsBish is NOT fond of needles.

AFAIK, AH1N1 vaccine is not administered through a needle, it is more like a spray in the nose.

 

[MrBishop]

AFAIK, AH1N1 vaccine is not administered through a needle, it is more like a spray in the nose.

That's one method...most are injected.