Recession? We don' need no steenkeen recession!

[catocom]

Does anyone here realize how happy most, and I do mean MOST, other countries in the world would be to have an unemployment rate of 5.7%???

Why is it that when it comes to bashing our own country there is no lack of those willing to step right up?

Try these stats http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/lab_une_rat-labor-unemployment-rate

Here is another that is more up to date http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate

Jobless Claims Surge to 6-Year High
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/jobless-claims-surge-k-k/

still doesn't look good to me.

 

[Gonz]

Is that what Bush did?

Of course.

 

[Gonz]

I'd believe that if Bush was up for re-election. He may be timing it this way so that he doesn't go out on a bad note (economically) thus protecting his page in the history books, but there are more things that he could've done instead to get more votes for McCain.

GW will have two issues he'll be remembered for. Tax Cuts, which helped us all, increased government revenues & pissed of the left, and;

the war. He'll be vindicated as a forward thinker on this, acting when others were too timid or scared.

 

[Frodo]

OMG!!! The Economy fluctuated?!? Oh, what ever shall I do?!? We must get the government to fix this right away!! They have the power to make it all better!!

I'm sorry if I got some sarcasm on your screen.

Why does everyone think that the economy won't have any fluctuations? And, what makes everyone think that the politicians have a magic screwdriver tuning the carburetor?

They can lower taxes and cut spending. They can even play with the interest rate. But, that is about all they can do.

 

[spike]

GW will have two issues he'll be remembered for. Tax Cuts, which helped us all, increased government revenues & pissed of the left, and;

the war. He'll be vindicated as a forward thinker on this, acting when others were too timid or scared.

Maybe if you block out reality with every fiber of your being.

 

[MrBishop]

GW will have two issues he'll be remembered for. Tax Cuts, which helped us all, increased government revenues & pissed of the left, and;

the war. He'll be vindicated as a forward thinker on this, acting when others were too timid or scared.

The war and 9/11 for sure. Homeland Security. Increased protectionism.

Tax cuts? I don't think so - Economically, the USA under his guard hasn't done all that well despite tax cuts. If I had to pick 3 things...the above would be the top remembered things about Bush's presidency.

 

[spike]

3 things? I'd go with the Iraq farce, shredding the Constitution, and spending our tax dollars like a drunken sailor in unrivaled corruption.

 

[jimpeel]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/08/do0801.xml

The great oil bubble has burst
By Martin Vander Weyer
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 08/08/2008

Bad news from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - an installation that may not normally draw much of your attention, but which is a throbbing artery of global energy supply, carrying vital oil supplies from Central Asia towards a tanker terminal on the Turkish coast. On some remote, sun-baked plain of Anatolia, an explosion sparked a fire earlier this week, temporarily cutting the flow through the pipeline.

But guess what? Here's the good news: the oil price did not zoom upwards in response, not a blip, barely a flicker. Actually the price of a barrel of crude has been falling: from a peak of $145 in early July, it came down to $117 and was trading yesterday at $120. That's almost a 20 per cent drop in little more than three weeks

If the trend continues into September at anything like the same rate of descent, most of the inflationary spike of the past 12 months will miraculously have been sliced away. This is a dramatic reversal, and it is worth trying to work out why it is happening and what it means.

Just possibly, it means that what investors refer to in shorthand as the great "oil up" story has finally revealed itself not as the fundamental reflection of scarce supply that its adherents liked to claim, but as a simple, speculative bubble that was always going to burst.

The market's conviction that oil prices were set on an unstoppable upswing was underpinned by a set of mantras to be chanted daily before breakfast by anyone hoping to make money by following the crowd: insatiable demand from China; indolent Opec sheikhs unwilling to open the supply taps; that nasty Vladimir Putin playing political hardball with Russia's oil and gas resources; those mad Iranian mullahs hell-bent on nuclear conflict; and beyond all these, the looming threat of "peak oil", the inevitable moment when Mother Earth's carbon-fuel gauge starts pointing towards empty.

One way or another, said the fundamentalists, the only destination for oil prices in the medium term was somewhere north of $200 a barrel. And hooray to that, chorused the green lobby, because it may be the only thing that will ever make us wake up to the need to stop cooking the planet with carbon emissions.

Layered on top of these long-term factors were the short-term headlines. As a matter of market psychology for the past several years, any news item suggesting temporary disruption of supply - rebel activity around Nigerian refineries, strikes in Venezuela, hurricane warnings in the Gulf of Mexico, Anatolian shepherds lighting their cooking fires beside a leaking pipeline - has motivated oil traders to push prices upwards: sometimes just long enough to turn a quick buck before settling back for the next jump, but always trending higher.

Now the psychological tide seems to be turning. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia, the dominant member of Opec, is now signalling greater willingness to open the oil taps. When the princes of the desert made a rather smaller gesture of willingness in that direction in June, the market took no notice and prices marched on. But in the new mood, any hint of an increase in Saudi supply is a reason to mark down prices.

As for the Russians and the Iranians, the pundits have remembered that even the most externally truculent or internally turbulent of energy-exporting nations can feed its people at home only by selling its natural resources abroad, so must ultimately stay on good terms with its customers.

And meanwhile, five years of rising oil prices have provoked a wave of investment in new drilling and refinery capacity - including the opening up of inaccessible oil sources that no one wanted to tackle when prices were low. Whether it is deep under the Arctic ice-cap or soaked into the tar-sands of northern Alberta, there turns out to be quite a lot more oil waiting to be exploited before we really approach the peak-oil apocalypse. More than that, high oil prices have encouraged rapid development of such alternative energy sources as wind and solar power, and more efficient engine and heating technologies.

On the demand side, a shuddering deceleration in economic activity across the industrialised world is starting to take pressure away. Many economists think the downturn will be deep and painful, and Opec (whose predictions are naturally at the low end of the range) thinks demand for its output could be lower in the early part of the next decade than it was in 2006.

In the motor industry, the talk is of plunging sales of gas-guzzlers, as drivers on both sides of the Atlantic switch to smaller, fuel-efficient cars - or simply cut out non-essential mileage. Even in China, for all the Olympic razzamatazz, a fall-off in Western demand for cheap manufactured exports must soon lead to at least a tempering of growth in energy demand.

Reading these tea leaves, if you are a hedge-fund manager who has spent the past year smugly amassing "oil up" positions in sophisticated financial instruments, you will certainly be trying to get out of them now: hence the sheer speed of the recent falls.

There is a long-running argument as to just what proportion of any commodity price movement can be traced to speculative activity by hedge funds and others, and what proportion to physical demand. But when the oil price swings up or down by $5 or more in a single day, you may be sure that the fluctuation is not being caused by a sheikh on one end of the line arguing with the manager of your local petrol station on the other: it is the financial parasites in between who are moving the market.

Less sophisticated, perhaps, are the more traditional oil players, who have simply been holding tankers full of the sticky stuff offshore while the barrel price was rising. They will now be instructing their captains to steam into port sharp-ish and unload at the best cash price they can get.

And where will that price be by mid-autumn, after a couple more months of gloom-laden statistics from the industrialised economies? Perhaps, with all the speculative fizz taken out of it, down by as much as a half from its June peak. That's not to say it won't go up again when the signals change and all those long-term factors loom large once more.

But for the time being, a return to a relatively "normal" oil price in the $60 to $80 range would take the sting out of the current inflationary surge, and that in turn would allow the Bank of England to contemplate cutting interest rates to stave off recession and help the housing market. (Which is another story for another day; but the U.S. is not the only country seeing housing declines and foreclosures. - j) Keep your fingers crossed, and keep your eye on how oil traders react to titbits of bad news.

Martin Vander Weyer is editor of Spectator Business

 

[paul_valaru]

Don't worry, sounds like the US will invade russia soon, and we all know, war is good for business.

 

[Luis G]

Don't worry, sounds like the US will invade russia soon, and we all know, war is good for business.

Rrrrrrrrrrrright

 

[catocom]

naw, there ain't no recession.
the gov will sell some more weapons to Israel, just to show you how good the numbers are.

maybe not
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,402708,00.html

 

[jimpeel]

The U.S. isn't the only country experiencing falling gas prices

From Japan Today:

http://www.japantoday.com/category/business/view/japan-pump-price-down-from-record-high

Japan pump price down from record high
Thursday 14th August, 07:01 AM JST

TOKYO —
The average retail price of regular gasoline in Japan has fallen from its record high amid slumping gasoline consumption, the Oil Information Center said Wednesday.

As of Monday, the average price stood at 184.4 yen per liter, down 0.7 yen from a week earlier, according to the center.

Higher pump prices dampened gasoline consumption during what is usually a period of strong demand ahead of the holiday season.

Gas stations apparently lowered retail prices due to intensifying sales competition.

The average retail price hit an all-time high of 185.1 yen on Aug. 4, reflecting wholesale price hikes by distributors including Nippon Oil Corp.

If crude oil prices remain on the current downtrend, wholesale prices for September may fall by around 10 yen from the previous month.

 

[jimpeel]

Once again ... it's "better-than-expected".

http://blogs.abcnews.com/moneybeat/2008/08/thank-you-weak.html

Thank You, Weak Dollar!
August 28, 2008 12:08 PM

ABC News' Bianna Golodryga reports: Thank you, weak dollar! For the second day in a row, Wall Street has been greeted by better-than-expected economic news.

Wednesday it was a better-than-expected durable goods orders report, for the second month in a row, no less.

This morning it was a better-than-expected revision in second quarter economic growth. GDP growth between the months of April and June was revised up to 3.3 percent after original estimates from the government called for an upward revision of 1.9 percent.

Hey, in this environment, it's kind of nice to have low expectations every once in a while, right? Especially after the pitiful 0.9 percent growth reported for the first quarter of the year.

The breakdown of the report explains it all: exports, exports, exports...

They were up 13 percent in the second quarter on the heels of foreign markets gobbling up U.S.-made products as if they were preparing for a storm (and I’m not talking about Gustav, but more on that later).

That same drive for U.S.-made products overseas also explains the uptick in durable goods orders, which climbed 1.3 percent in July. It's clear that even if U.S. consumers have gone on a spending diet, U.S. businesses catering to international buyers are still charging full steam ahead after a weak U.S. dollar has made them much more competitive in the global playing field.

That's right, folks -- it's all about the steep decline we've seen in the U.S. dollar and it may be one reason why the government and Mr. Paulson (while always sticking to the mantra of a strong dollar policy) have been lax about enforcing one over the past year.

In July, the U.S dollar hit a record low of $1.6038 against the euro, making U.S. products and U.S. real estate bargain investments. And in no place in the country is this trend more evident than in New York City, where every other person walking down the street is carrying bags full of merchandise, and nearly each on of them is speaking in a foreign tongue. On a recent flight back to New York from Texas, I overheard a conversation between two non-New Yorkers, who were visiting the Big Apple for the first time, discussing how every other person on the street is a foreigner. You know the saying, when everyone becomes an expert on a trend, be it dot-coms, real estate and yes, tourism, you've reached its peak? That could be the case here.

In recent weeks, the dollar has jumped more than 5 percent versus the euro, putting it on course for its best monthly performance in nine years. That resurgence has less to do with a strengthening U.S economy and dollar but more so with a slowing global economy. Coming on the heels of the U.S. slowdown, the global economy’s woes show that even despite globalization and its effects, when the U.S. sneezes, the world still catches a cold (though perhaps not as quickly as it used to).

It's becoming clear that the credit crisis is spreading beyond the U.S at a steady pace. Economic forecasts throughout Europe have been gloomy as of late. The housing markets in Spain and the U.K. are quickly deteriorating, while polls in Europe's third largest economy, Germany, show a great deal of consumer and business worry and angst. The same is taking place in Japan and yes, even the unstoppable China (which, don't get me wrong, is still growing, albeit in the single digits -- analysts are now calling for China's economic growth to drop to 9 percent this year, down from 11.4 percent in 2007.)

So what will happen in September, which is historically a lousy month for the markets? Who knows? It's impossible to gauge where the market will close today, much less what it will be doing next month. As Arthur Cashin, head of floor operations for UBS, rightly pointed out this morning, the Thursday before Labor Day has "a rather negative history over the years, in the last 11 years, it has been down ten times."

Judging by today's strong open, it may break that trend, thanks again, to a weak dollar. But, with Tropical Storm Gustav charging ahead, and oil prices climbing in tandem, the hurricane could give the dollar a run for its money, literally. The AP has been reporting that if Gustav attacks the same region as Katrina, the Bush administration could tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Planalytics, a provider of business weather intelligence reports that the storm could force closed around 85 percent of oil-producing platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

But for now, market bulls are in charge, as the Dow is up triple digits on news that the summer has not been nearly as bad as expected. The bears? Well, they are just reminding the bulls that those initial expectations were nothing to brag about.

In case you missed it, that was 3.3% GROWTH.

No recession aqui!

 

[jimpeel]

At the same time we, here, are paring down on our large vehicles for deadly little shitboxes, the Russians and others are thumbing their noses at fuel economy. Global warming -- global schwarming.

Some Ruskie is driving your Hummer.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKLR7370520080827

Russians laud size, not fuel economy at car show
Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:39pm BST

By Simon Shuster

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Fuel-guzzling trucks and sports utility vehicles took centre stage at the Moscow car show, flaunting the indifference of Russian buyers to fuel economy and climate change as they project growing wealth through their cars.

International carmakers, who premiered bigger and more powerful machines at the semi-annual event this year, seemed to grasp the prejudice against fuel-saving cars in Russia, where petrol prices are the same as in the United States but half the West European level.

Of the 14 Nissan models on display, eight were SUVs, while the three budget models were off in a corner by the bathrooms.

"It's not the Russian style to worry about fuel efficiency," said Maxim Karlyuk, the sales consultant manning the Nissan showroom.

"People want to go bigger. They want to go four-wheel-drive. They want to move up."

While the biggest and flashiest of the SUVs -- GM's Hummer -- was absent from the show, visitors on press day flocked to be photographed in front of GM's Jeep Grand Cherokee and other solid middle-class offerings.

Oil and gas exports have supported a decade of economic growth in Russia, helping to lift millions of Russians out of poverty and into the middle class. With most apartments having been privatized to them after the fall of the Soviet Union, the first big purchase they aspire to is a brand new car.

Accordingly, sales of foreign makes, much preferred to the local models associated with the Soviet past, grew 46 percent in January-July 2008.

[more]

 

[Gonz]

The experts were surprised....again....again....again....again....again....again....again

 

[spike]

Economic indicators leave little doubt area is in recession

Escalating job losses and the decaying housing market weighed down the local economic outlook once again in July, leaving little doubt among economists that the region is in recession.
The University of San Diego's monthly report on leading economic indicators fell again in July, led by plunging consumer confidence, a jump in job losses and worries about the national economy.



AdvertisementThe USD index has fallen for 27 of the last 28 months.
“I would say the local economy is in a recession right now,” said Alan Gin, an economist with USD's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate. “The unemployment rate is 6.4 percent – the first time we've been above 6 percent since the 1990s.”

Hiring remains weak, while the pace of job losses continues to be high. Though housing and construction have been the main culprits behind job losses, unemployment is increasingly spreading to other sectors of the economy, such as auto sales and some retailers.

“We've got a lot of job losses in the county,” said Gin. “For the first seven months of the year we're down” in terms of year-over-year job growth.

The county had 4,600 fewer salaried workers in July than it did in July 2007 – the fourth time in five months that the county had a year-to-year job loss.

Some sectors of the economy, such as biotech and technology, are holding up reasonably well, say economists. Local stock prices declined in July, but not as severely as earlier in the year.

But the intensity of the housing downturn has overshadowed any gains by other sectors, dispelling the often-repeated notion that San Diego's economy was too diverse to suffer in a recession.

Gin used to endorse that theory. But not anymore.

“It turns out the damage from housing, the loss of employment from housing, is much more severe than I would have thought,” he said.

It's uncommon for housing to drive an economic downturn. The 2001 recession was sparked by a bubble in technology stocks. The early 1990s recession spread from cuts in federal defense spending and overbuilding of office buildings.

“We haven't had a housing-driven recession in my lifetime,” said Dan Seiver, a finance professor at San Diego State University. “The problem with that is housing is so widely held, and it's such an important asset” for most households.

Seiver said there is “no doubt” the local economy has been in a recession all year. “There's a lot for consumers to be pessimistic about,” he said. “I don't think that's unrealistic.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080828-1429-bn28sdecon.html

 

[spike]

Recession is likely by year end: Chamber of Commerce

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will likely slip into a recession by the end of the year, but the woes in the housing market are close to bottoming out, the top economist for a leading U.S. business group said on Thursday.

"I see possibly a recession by the end of the year, but it will be a relatively short recession and a relatively mild recession," said Martin Regalia, vice president for economic policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

He also said the government's economic stimulus package helped head off a recession during the second and third quarters of this year, but that a second such package would not be worthwhile.

"Some of the problems in the economy are a little more fundamental than consumption," Regalia told reporters in a briefing.

Congress passed the $152 billion stimulus package in February, sending checks directly to thousands of Americans in an attempt to spur the economy and help those hurt by the economic slowdown.

Democrats have discussed passing another emergency spending bill, but the movement has not gotten much traction.

Revised numbers released on Thursday showed consumer spending, supported by the stimulus package and strong exports, pushed the economy ahead at a solid 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. That was much stronger than the prior assessment of a 1.9 percent gain.

Regalia said he expects moderate third-quarter growth, at a 1 percent annual rate, and zero or slightly negative growth in the fourth quarter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN2831169720080828

 

[jimpeel]

“I would say the local economy is in a recession right now,” said Alan Gin, an economist with USD's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.

When someone starts a sentence with "I would say" it means nothing more than their personal opinion. The story says "leading economic indicators fell again in July" but did it actually fall into NEGATIVE growth and has it done so for two quarters?

"Recession" is one of those words people like to bandy about but there is an official definition of what a recession is and these guys aren't presenting anything to show that there has been two quarters of NEGATIVE growth. "Not as much growth" is not a recession.

Then you post an accompanying story which states that we aren't IN a recession but we COULD be in one by the end of the year. I'm sure that you will be highly displeased if this prediction goes the way of global cooling, ocean life depletion, and the extinction of the gorillas.

We'll be watching.

 

[chcr]

Yes, yes, the economy is completely recovered and everything is just bitchin'. Hey, don't bogart that thing.

 

[MrBishop]

sigh

Anyone up to typing Macro vs MicroEconomics 101 again...I'm not in the mood right now