Iran

[MrBishop]

Iran is not Iraq. But as the war of words between Washington and Tehran heats up, there is a distinct déjà vu feel. It sounds a lot like the pre-invasion exchanges between the Bush administration and Saddam Hussein.

The United States "will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon" and "is keeping all options on the table," Vice President Cheney said ominously Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Iran threatened the United States with "harm and pain" after a U.S.-led move to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council.

Military action against Iran is neither inevitable, nor, at this stage, likely. But if the Iraq war provides one lesson, it is this: The best way to address a foreign threat - and Iran's illegal effort to build nuclear weapons is certainly that - is through coordinated international action, difficult as that is to achieve.

There is a model, also from Iraq. It's the efforts before the 1991 Persian Gulf War. In that crisis, patience and intensive diplomacy created a coalition that removed Saddam from Kuwait, then forced him to submit to sanctions and weapons inspections.

The outlines of a coordinated international effort on Iran are, in fact, in place and, despite Cheney's saber rattling, they have U.S. support. Wednesday's referral to the Security Council wasn't rushed. It followed months of diplomacy and a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

But Iran's resistance appears resolute. The best hope is agreement on some combination of sanctions, diplomacy, promoting a democratic uprising against the hard-line mullahs, and military threat.

Each has drawbacks. Russia and China don't want sanctions because they have economic interests in Iran, which is why the Security Council almost certainly won't impose them right away. Iran provides 5% of the world's oil, so it could send prices skyrocketing. While many Iranians don't like the ayatollahs, they see nuclear weapons as a source of national pride and resent outside pressure. Diplomacy hasn't achieved much. But military strikes, too, might fail. Many of Iran's nuclear facilities are hidden underground. And like the Iraq war, an attack would further radicalize Muslims.

Then there's another problem: Iran's threats to inflict "harm and pain" are real: Besides an oil embargo, it could foment unrest among fellow Shiites in neighboring Iraq and use terrorist proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas against U.S. and Israeli targets.

Iran is a serious threat to the region and the world. It could give nuclear weapons to terrorists, ignite a nuclear war with Israel or set off a Mideast arms race. Defusing that threat requires all the skill, patience, persistence and diplomacy President Bush has already demonstrated.

That would be President George H.W. Bush, 15 years ago.

What're the odds?

 

[HomeLAN]

Are they simply posturing, or are they damned good and determined to build a nuke? If the former, a way will be found to defuse the situation. If the latter, there will be some military action, even if it's limited to bombing out their facilities. We simply can't afford to let this country, ruled by this set of people, to have nukes. Cannot happen.

My personal opinion? They're gonna get fairly well along with their planned facility of 50,000 gas centrifuges, and then one of the coalition governments, maybe Israel, is going to make a crater out of it. Then we'll have a gut check on Iran. Take it further with 130,000 US troops next door, or limit your response to bitching and moaning?

 

[unclehobart]

They're just trying to fill the vaccum of Islamic top dog in the world. they want to become the gravity well for 'the faithful'. After all.. their hold upon their own populous is getting steadily more tenuous. The only way to get a free pass for a few years is the old reliable patriotism angle.

I believe they actually have a working nuclear weapon or three as it is considering the long spongy border with the Soviets and their hungry military guards of nuclear installations. Purchasing a working short range or artillery nuke would cost only a few million at best... mere chicken feed.

 

[highwayman]

Iran is sabor rattling. I think there would be an air strike long before an invasion takes place.

 

[Gonz]

Sabre rattling usually requires a sabre.

It's one more step towards a much larger problem

 

[Winky]

There is about as much chance of a shootin' war with Iran (zero) as there is with North Korea.

 

[highwayman]

There is about as much chance of a shootin' war with Iran (zero) as there is with North Korea.

As long as there a CnC that is willing to drop the hammer...

 

[Winky]

First either nation would have to pull something
that the CnC could use as a reason to fire up the war machine.

Even though they both deserve the Baghdad
treatment, the bleeding hearts won't allow the right thing to be done.

 

[rrfield]

I'm guessing if Iran doesn't play nice we will try "surgical strikes" to take out their facilities, avoiding a full-blown war.

 

[catocom]

They're asing for it

I'm guessing if Iran doesn't play nice we will try "surgical strikes" to take out their facilities, avoiding a full-blown war.

If we do surgical strikes, there will be no avoiding a full-blown war.
Both ARE coming IMO.
I'm sure we are probably hashing out strategies in Iraq, and Afghanistan now,
for the possibilities.
The sad part is the Iranians will through children out there that will have to be killed,
and that's will spark some more bad sentiment all over.
(they will try to make it more like Vietnam for sure on their end)
We'll have to get back to WWII tactics as far as "civilians" are concerned.
That's why it's imperative that we have a wider coalition on this one.

 

[Gonz]

The Iranian people have no love for their government & would just assume get a helping hand in their removal but flavio says no

 

[2minkey]

yeah gonz there's lots of dissent within iran. folks getting nostalgic, whipping up weird memories of 'the golden days' under the shah.

article in the atlantic a couple months ago talked about the possibility of covert, deniable strikes against iranian facilities... not the worst idea i've ever heard...

 

[Gonz]

After 20+ years of comparing...the Shah was the golden days.

 

[Winky]

Their will never be any mythical 'surgical strikes'

(by the way Global security dot Org sez there are over 100
potential Iranian nuke sites, the juicy one’s are all built underground)

unless they are carried out by the Israelis
against the administrations wishes.

Nope it would have to be an all or nothing proposition as Cat sez

I will give ya three possible scenarios though.

The west is successful in raising enough hullabaloo
and some lame-assed sanctions are brought against
the radical regime in Iran

vague possibility

or

some earth shattering event like 9-11 occurs and it can be traced back to Iran
in which case all bets are off and them bastards will all be hiding in spider holes like Saddam until we jerk them out and try ‘em and fry ‘em

highly unlikely

and the most likely outcome

The Iranians cool their jets until there's a Demorat
elected to the White House and like Kim Sung Ill
they can join the Nuclear family unopposed like Clinton
allowed.

This one is entirely up to the American voters!

heh heh

 

[Inkara1]

Where did her tits go?

 

[Altron]

The way I see it, we're England in 1935, looking at Germany start a huge military build-up and we're going 'Well, maybe we should inspect the German's military to make sure it's in accordance with the Treaty of Versailles' instead of going 'Let's invade the fuckers NOW, while we have the upper hand.'

 

[catocom]

Only they won't let anyone "inspect".

 

[Gonz]

The way I see it, we're England in 1935, looking at Germany start a huge military build-up and we're going 'Well, maybe we should inspect the German's military to make sure it's in accordance with the Treaty of Versailles' instead of going 'Let's invade the fuckers NOW, while we have the upper hand.'

Not WE....flavio & his ilk are the problem

 

[Winky]

The way I see it... while we have the upper hand.

One Major difference

we will always have the upper hand

we can do what we want when we want

'cept fer them pesky Flav's

gotta wait fer a mushroom cloud to rise over
an American city first ya know...

no body ragged SA for gettin' da bomb did they?

 

[Gato_Solo]

...and it just keeps getting better...