The day the Earth nearly stood still

I was just going along with your suggestion. Calm it down Gonz, I didn't meen to hurt your feelings.
 
jimpeel said:
The DJIA has dropped 2,000 points since election day. Quite the vote of confidence, that.
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interact-chart.img


Confidence in the market? The recent drop is part of a longer trend that is unlikely to be turned around anytime soon. Even once the money starts dropping from the skies onto the bless'd banks and car manufacturers, the DJIA will continue to drop. I'm thinking that it'll be at around 6,5k or under before Q3-09

I'd also be willing to bet that the exact same thing would've happened if McCain/Pallin had taken office.
 
IMO less than 5k eventually due to the spending on both sides...now

Get yur gold, silver, and other commodities....they're goin' up.
Dollar, going down.
 
that will just hold it longer....slower slide, but it'll be worse when it happens...
when that money runs out in a couple of months...tops.
 
it's too bad. we'd reached bottom. now, with another 800,000,000,000 in the tank, we're off to the races to see how much worse it can get.
 
Dow Jones Industrial Average

(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value:7,210.76
Trade Time: 1:57pm
ETChange:
down_r.gif
154.91 (2.10%)
Prev Close:7,365.67
Open:7,365.99
Day's Range:7,188.77 - 7,441.0252

Ouch :evileek2:
 
chcr said:
It'll dip below 7000 before the week is out. :mope:
Click to expand...
It's damn near there now..with 30 mins to go.
7,128.32

It'll open at 7,250 (about 200pts above the close - which is it's pattern as of late) and at the rate it's dropping, you should see under 7k by noon tomorrow.
 
i've been hearing some interesting things for the past couple days from various industry experts (i'm a reluctant attendee at a business conference)... seems that manufacturers, distributors, and retailers are quite spooked, to the point where no one will hold much inventory due to carrying costs and lack of operating capital availability, which means there are going to be a lot of empty shelves if this continues. not everything at once, or anything cataclysmic, but from time to time you may not be able to buy your favorite armpit sauce, lice shampoo, or hemhorroid cream.
 
I'm lookin' for opportunity.
I'd put up a windmill, and maintain it, for the right incentive.
I'd do solar for the home too.
Possibly a small hydro.

We'll have to wait on the new grid to a degree, but....
 
It's a matter of solvency - or cash-flow analysis, if you will.

Let's say that you import from China. Your JIT (Just in time) inventory is normally 6weeks ahead (shipped by boat). You know your inventory turnover per item, so you know when you have to order more of items x through z.

All of a sudden, your turnover is MUCH longer than before. You go through one cycle with normal inventory orders and realize that just as you're about to order more, that you're still flush with stock...so you recalculate your JIT dates. In the meanwhile, the manufacturer is still producing at best capacity. It's inventory starts backing up in warehouse. It's now paying out cash to buy raw materials but isn't getting cash back from sales. It starts slowing down too, and it's JIT raw material deliveries get affected.

In short, until the market stabilizes (not rebound..just stable), stores will have to keep recalculating their purchases trying to balance low sales/slow turnover with incoming stock so they don't run out and/or waste shelf-space. Distributors will start demanding minimum orders to try and flush their warehouses of older stock. Manufacturers will cut production to flush their warehouses...and raw material companies will lay people off.

Depending on how bullish or bearish the people working in purchasing are, you'll see variety dropping or shelf space per item dropping.

I'm thinking that variety will drop first. Instead of seeing 5 to 15 kinds of katsup on your shelves, you'll find the top 3-5.
 
Yep, it's like dominoes. There's a lower limit though. When people start to starve, that's when the riots start. *peepwall*
 
chcr said:
Yep, it's like dominoes. There's a lower limit though. When people start to starve, that's when the riots start. *peepwall*
Click to expand...
The black market will save us.

A small panic
Stockpiling
a bigger panic
Rationing
Inflation
Black market economy
Associated criminal violence
Food riots
 
SOURCE

Monday, February 23, 2009

Recession Wipes Away Decade of Gains

Matt Egan

Recession and financial fears sent the Dow and S&P 500 on Monday to their worst closing levels since 1997 as the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has now erased more than a decade's worth of gains on Wall Street.

The latest bleeding on Wall Street comes as enthusiasm over a new rescue of Citigroup was quickly drowned out by worries about when the economy will recover and what regulators will do to fix the shaky financial system.

Today’s Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 250.89 points, or 3.41%, to 7114.78, the S&P 500 lost 26.72 points, or 3.47%, to 743.33 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 53.51 points, or 3.71%, to 1387.72. The consumer-friendly FOX 50 sank 18.04 points, or 3.14%, to 556.37.

"Corporate earnings show no signs of turning around, the economy shows no signs of turning around and the consumer shows no signs of turning around. Absent those factors, what reason would stocks have for putting together a sustainable rally?" said Dan Greenhaus, equity analyst at Miller Tabak.

The markets have seen the exact opposite of a sustainable rally as the Dow has plummeted 1,150 points since Feb. 9, the day before the Treasury Department unveiled a financial rescue plan that many have said lacked details about how the government will help banks get rid of their toxic assets. Fears that the government will need to nationalize the most troubled banks have also slammed the markets.

“Without any idea about which course [regulators] are going to take, people are not stepping in. They are moving without a compass,” said Frank Davis, director of sales and trading at LEK Securities. “We’re going nowhere. We are slipping continuously until we get some clarity.”

The markets initially rallied Monday morning after The Wall Street Journal reported the government is in talks to stabilize Citigroup (C: 2.16, 0.14, 6.93%) by increasing its stake to up to 40%. While Citi and other financials rose sharply, tech and material stocks like U.S. Steel (X: 21.51, -3.3918, -13.62%) plummeted to new depths by the time the dust settled.

“The market is just so skeptical of anything the government does given past performances,” said Ryan Detrick, equity analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

Back to 1997

The downturn on Wall Street hit another landmark on Monday as the S&P 500 set a new bear market closing low, ending at the lowest level since April 1997. The S&P 500 did not breach its November 21 intraday low, though it hovers just above it. The Dow, which last week suffered its worst weekly losses since October, ended at its lowest closing level since May 1997.

“We are in a real critical level right now,” NYSE trader Ted Weisberg of Seaport Securities told FOX Business. “It’s hard to believe that we are at these levels but here we are. Technically, if the market can’t hold these levels, we are going into uncharted territory.”

Market participants and observers said given the fact the Dow hasn't posted a meaningful rally since Feb. 6, it could be due for a short-term bounce in the coming days.

Nearly all 30 components of the Dow ended in negative territory, led by DuPont (DD: 18.89, -1.53, -7.49%) and aluminum titan Alcoa (AA: 5.81, -0.45, -7.19%). Citi and Bank of America (BAC: 3.9, 0.25, 6.85%), which had ended in the red in each of the prior six sessions, posted the index's biggest percentage gains but closed off their best levels.

The Nasdaq Composite, which has yet to breach its November lows, saw even heavier selling than the broader market as tech heavyweights like Apple (AAPL: 86.95, -4.25, -4.66%) and Dell (DELL: 7.99, -0.42, -4.99%) tumbled.

Without any major economic or earnings reports on the agenda, Wall Street’s focus on Monday remained squarely on the tumultuous financial sector and the government’s efforts to fix it.
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so, jim, is this officially now a recession according to peel?

yeah the funny thing bish is that, while in some consumer goods there are some minor contractions in demand, right now the wackiness is being promulgated by the business side, which is, understandably, in worry-wart mode. folks are still buying plenty of soap... and lube.

the real places where we're seeing contraction are in eating out and big ticket purchases (and no surprise there), but not so much in the little everyday types of products.

and - you'll love this peeler - everybody's talking about how much they wish they was wal-mart at this point!
 
MrBishop said:
The black market will save us.

A small panic
Stockpiling
a bigger panic
Rationing
Inflation
Black market economy
Associated criminal violence
Food riots
Click to expand...

... and of course now i'm concerned that i've only got about 40 rounds of ammo at home...
 
2minkey said:
so, jim, is this officially now a recession according to peel?
Click to expand...

Yep, and about time, too. They fudged the numbers and declared the recession too early. The economy only had two NEGATIVE growth numbers in the two most recent quarters. Until then, there were only REDUCED growth numbers.

The press beat the drum for a recession and they got it. Too bad it didn't occur during the Bush term as they desired. Now their savior is stuck with it.

Of course, the reports are now that the recession started in December 2007; but there are no real numbers to support that other than REDUCED growth. REDUCED growth does not a recession make. Only NEGATIVE growth over two CONSECUTIVE quarters counts.
 
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